Monday, November 17, 2008

How do you know if the real-estate market is in the dumps ? Just keep a tab on your bike-mechanic.

Yeah, I know it sounds strange that your neighbourhood bike-mechanic has anything to do
with the real-estate market's fortunes. I don't know about other countries or even other
places in India, but if things in Chennai are an indication, you better keep a tab on the guy.

As I mentioned in a previous post, Chennai city has the highest number of motor-bikes in
India and it would only be natural if the number of bike-shops and bike-mechanics are also proportionately higher. Every street here has a small pigeon-hole shop that is supposedly
a bike-repair shop.

After buying my bike in 1995 (yeah it is 13 years old and nearing the government specified
life for cars/bikes of 15 years), I used the services of the authorised workshops only for a
year. This was because only they were qualified to do the 3 free services that need to be
done at 1/6/12 months of owning a bike and if you got these services done elsewhere, it
voids the warranty.

Once the free services were done with, I went about identifying a good mechanic near my
home with whom I could entrust my bike for any repairs. The criteria was reliability, honesty and reasonable expertise and ofcourse economical, when compared to authorised workshops. With help from friends, I identified one such guy and he has been taking care of my bike all
these years.

A friendly guy, he could easily detect problems and fix them too. And he had his shop on the same road where my apartment was. So, things were going fine. Atleast till a few years ago.

Some 3-4 years ago, I noticed that he would not be available whenever I went there. In his
place there would be a young apprentice, who while all eager to work, was not skilled enough.
Which meant that my bike would be a guinea-pig for him to learn the trick of the trade. But though my bike is old, I still like it as I did when it was new. So, I would give the kid some
excuse and come at some other time. But the friendly owner/mechanic would still be missing.

It was only after a few such visits and talks with my friends that I came to know that our man chanced upon an alternate occupation - broker for land/home deals. The real-estate market
was booming like crazy in Chennai and he was making quite a packet by helping sell/buy land. Compared to that money (typically a percentage of the deal value), the measly income from repairing bikes was negligible.

Still he did not want to give up his first occupation fully which explained his keeping the shop active with an apprentice. While his business repairing bikes suffered due to his absence and
the inexperience of the apprentice, he was making good money from real estate deals. This continued till early 2008. I gave up visiting his shop altogether & identified another workshop
for my bike-repair needs.

A few months ago, I was walking by his shop & see him working seriously on a bike. I dismiss
it as a one-off case of his putting in some time on the bike just for old times sake. But over the days, I see him regularly at the shop repairing bikes. The apprentice is gone and it is he himself who does all repairs.

I am surprised initially, but then can make out the connection. Like elsewhere in the world,
the real-estate sector came in for a correction here in India also, specifically in Chennai. As
they say, "When America sneezes, the world is sure to catch a cold". Effect of the American
slow-down/recession is to be seen here also. Not only are salary & recruitment freezes being
put in place, but lay-offs are also being reported.

When people are worrying about their jobs, buying a new home or plot of land would be the
last thing on their mind. As the situation stands currently here, there is a kind of stalemate
in the market - builders/developers have stopped new projects and going slow on projects
that are under construction because there are not enough buyers at the price they are demanding. And buyers are not buying because they are expecting the prices to crash.
Who will break first remains to be seen.

Anyway, this situation is bad for the brokers also. After all, if no transaction is happening,
where would they get their cut from ? Which explains why my bike mechanic is back to
repairing bikes.

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